Fun with Bayes' theorem and the argument from silence

Discussion about the New Testament, apocrypha, gnostics, church fathers, Christian origins, historical Jesus or otherwise, etc.
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hjalti
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Re: Fun with Bayes' theorem and the argument from silence

Post by hjalti »

cienfuegos wrote:
hjalti wrote:
MrMacSon wrote:That doesn't make sense.
If both theory A and B make the same prediction X. Then finding that X is the case doesn't make either A or B more probable. Right? How does that not make any sense?
IN the case of Jesus historicity though, the theory has been found to be malleable, thus it loses its predictive power. Let me explain.
Before one tries to figure out whether there was a Jesus or not, I think one should first make sure that one's logic isn't a total mess. And it seems to me like MrMacSon's logic is a mess so I think one would need to address that before discussing the historicity of Jesus.
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