If 'Jesus Christ began as a celestial deity' is false,
it could still be that he began as a political fiction, for example (as some
scholars have indeed argued-the best examples being R .G. Price and
Gary Courtney). But as will become dear in following chapters (especially
Chapter 1 1), such a premise has a much lower prior probability (and
thus is already at a huge disadvantage over Premise 1 even before we start
examining the evidence), and a very low consequent probability (though it
suits the Gospels well, it just isn't possible to explain the evidence in the
Epistles this way, and the origin of Christianity itself becomes very hard
to explain as well). Although I leave open the possibility it may yet be vindicated,
I'm sure it's very unlikely to be, and accordingly I will assume its
prior probability is too small even to show up in our math. This decision
can be reversed only by a sound and valid demonstration that we must
assign it a higher prior or consequent, but that I leave to anyone who thinks
it's possible. In the meantime, what we have left is Premise 1, such that if
that is less probable than minimal historicity, then I would be convi nced
historicity should be affirmed (particularly as the 'political fiction' theory
already fits historicity and thus is not really a challenge to it-indeed that's
often the very kind of fiction that gets written about historical persons).
(OHJ, p. 53-54)
''Political fiction'' would be the idea that all the Christian Mythology is based ultimately on Earliest Written Gospel, meant as a political manifest/propaganda.
If we know only the Charlie Chaplin's movie The Great Dictator, we might always suspect that behind the figure of 'Adenoid Hynkel' is hidden a historical figure actually existed. In this sense ''the 'political fiction' theory already fits historicity and thus is not really a challenge to it''.
But I think that the simple suspect is removed IF we should see that all the books, movie, records, etc. meant to talk about Adenoid Hynkel derived ultimately only from that movie, because this fact alone would show that people already interested in his figure did not find anything else to go by that is not the movie itself, therefore confirming indirectly the absence of other evidence. Otherwise, why else would we deny a priori the existence of Darth Vader?
(note I'm using here the argument that would be more or less the exact mythicist argument of R. G. Price, not Robert).
Which are the other principal flaws in that theory?
According to Carrier, it didn't fit the epistles. But if the epistles are removed from picture as II CE inventions (''Paul'' being the banal personification of all people who will be called polemically ''the least in kingdom'' for having violated even one iota of the Law), what else can be an obstacle to this hypothesis?