Neil wrote:
11Q13 does not speak of the sort of "anointed one" that is said to be at the centre of messianic expectations. It speaks of a preaching prophet, not a warrior. I don't know how that relates to the question of popular messianic expectations as generally understood by those who speak of them as characteristic of the early first century.
Aren't you arguing that we don't have enough information to say there was widespread messianic expectation in the first century CE? So how do you know that "11Q13 does not speak of the sort of "anointed one" that is said to be at the centre of messianic expectations"? Who is saying that?
I'm comfortable with multiple elements of the Messiah, like in the case of Jesus. He is presented as being a "preaching prophet" and using Is. 61:1-12, like in 11Q13, and was seen as being like Melchizedek, who is the subject of 11Q13. That Dan. 9:25 or 9:26 is also cited enhances the "messianic" character of 11Q13.
That these are messianic elements is supported by 4QTestimonia (4Q175), which is a short collection of arguably messianic proof texts (even though none of them use the word messiah), half of which are applied to Jesus in later Christian writings. These include the prophet like Moses (Dt. 18:18-19), followed by the Star Prophecy (Num. 24:15-17), then a reference to the Levites (Dt. 33:8-11) and then a reference to Joshua. As Vermes puts it, "The first group consists of two texts from Deuteronomy referring to the prophet similar to Moses; the second is an extract from a prophecy of Balaam abut the Royal Messiah; the third is a blessing of the Levites, and, implicitly, the Priest-Messiah. The last group opens with a verse from Joshua."
So several arguably messianic elements are gathered here (whether they are applicable to one person or not), and the reference to Joshua is interesting because not only does it connect him to these arguably messianic texts, it changes the original context from Jericho to Jerusalem and says that "they [whoever they may have been] have rebuilt [this city and have set up for it] a wall and towers to make of it a stronghold of ungodliness in Israel ... [... They have shed blood] like water upon the ramparts of the daughter of Zion and within the precincts of Jerusalem."
You asked for some specific examples so let's start with the Egyptian, who, as you mentioned, is presented by Josephus as being a prophet and like Joshua in the 60's CE (and is also tied to "robbers," i.e., bandits).
Ant. 20.8.6:
These works, that were done by the robbers, filled the city with all sorts of impiety. And now these impostors and deceivers persuaded the multitude to follow them into the wilderness, and pretended that they would exhibit manifest wonders and signs, that should be performed by the providence of God. And many that were prevailed on by them suffered the punishments of their folly; for Felix brought them back, and then punished them. Moreover, there came out of Egypt about this time to Jerusalem one that said he was a prophet, and advised the multitude of the common people to go along with him to the Mount of Olives, as it was called, which lay over against the city, and at the distance of five furlongs. He said further, that he would show them from hence how, at his command, the walls of Jerusalem would fall down; and he promised them that he would procure them an entrance into the city through those walls, when they were fallen down. Now when Felix was informed of these things, he ordered his soldiers to take their weapons, and came against them with a great number of horsemen and footmen from Jerusalem, and attacked the Egyptian and the people that were with him. He also slew four hundred of them, and took two hundred alive. But the Egyptian himself escaped out of the fight, but did not appear any more. And again the robbers stirred up the people to make war with the Romans, and said they ought not to obey them at all; and when any persons would not comply with them, they set fire to their villages, and plundered them.
And Theudas is also presented as being a prophet and like Joshua (in the 40's CE).
Ant. 20.5.1:
Now it came to pass, while Fadus was procurator of Judea, that a certain magician, whose name was Theudas, persuaded a great part of the people to take their effects with them, and follow him to the river Jordan; for he told them he was a prophet, and that he would, by his own command, divide the river, and afford them an easy passage over it; and many were deluded by his words. However, Fadus did not permit them to make any advantage of his wild attempt, but sent a troop of horsemen out against them; who, falling upon them unexpectedly, slew many of them, and took many of them alive. They also took Theudas alive, and cut off his head, and carried it to Jerusalem. This was what befell the Jews in the time of Cuspius Fadus's government.
So both of these elements, being a prophet and like Joshua, are in 4Q175. And in the case of the Egyptian, it is curious that he wanted to make the walls of Jerusalem fall down, since 4Q175 says, "they have rebuilt [this city and have set up for it] a wall and towers to make of it a stronghold of ungodliness in Israel" (Jos. 6:26) and changes the context of it from Jericho to Jerusalem.
And both of these passages from Josephus also illustrate the popularity of these Joshua-like prophets (and in War 2.261-262 the Egyptian is said to have had 30,000 followers, which is three times more than the numbers Josephus gives for the Pharisees and Essenes combined).
So to say that someone could be a prophet like Moses or Joshua but could not also be the Messiah makes me think of 4Q175, where both of these elements are connected to the Star Prophecy.
To get back to 11Q13/Melchizedek and your comment that it "speaks of a preaching prophet, not a warrior," I disagree, since it also says things like, "And Melchizedek will avenge the vengeance of the judgments of God ... and he will drag [them from the hand of] Belial and from the hand of all the sp[irits of] his [lot]. And all the 'gods [of justice'] will come to his aid [to] attend to the de[struction] of Belial" and that "Your elohim is [Melchizedek, who will save them from] the hand of Belial," which appear right before and after the references to the anointed messenger and Dan. 9:25 or 9:26.
Furthermore, 11Q13, as we have it, begins with a reference to the Jubilee, which is relevant to the timing of messianism. As it says regarding Is. 61:1, "[... Its interpretation is that He] will assign them to the Sons of Heaven and to the inheritance of Melchizedek; f[or he will cast] their [lot] amid the po[rtions of Melchize]dek, who will return them there and will proclaim to them liberty, forgiving them [the wrong-doings] of all their iniquities. And this will [occur] in the first week of the Jubilee that follows the nine Jubilees."
So all of these things -11Q13, 4Q175 and Theudas and the Egyptian- seem messianic to me, even though only 11Q13 uses the word messiah.
You know in spite of all you gained, you still have to stand out in the pouring rain.