If we stick to the facts then we can understand how Carrier's latest attempt to disprove the historical Jesus using Baye's Theorem also fails.
"The most common objection [to Baye's Theorem] is usually to insist that historical reasoning isn’t mathematical. But it obviously is."...Carrier
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No, it obviously isn't.
Baye's theorem assigns probability using statics. Do you believe in unicorns? What are the statistics on unicorns? Don't laugh, Julius Caesar wrote about unicorns in the Gallic Wars. So, if unicorns were statically 100% real to Julius Caesar in 52 B.C. then why shouldn't they be statically added to the formula to determine if there was a historical Julius Caesar? Furthermore, what will be the standard for assigning a number value to unicorns, yours or Caesar's?
Take two panels of experts, the first made up of nothing but atheists and the other panel nothing but theologians. Using Baye's theorem what is the probability that they will come up with the same numerical value given for miracles in determining the probability that Jesus rose from the dead?
Don't laugh, plenty of Greco-Roman biographies contain miracles and the Gospels have all the ear marks of a traditional Greco-Roman biography.
http://www.bookreviews.org/bookdetail.asp?TitleId=4839
I sense the real reason Carrier wants you to use Baye's Theorem for invalidating the historical Jesus is because figures lie and liars figure.
Carrier has fallen for the fallacy of, "Argument from Ignorance". He presupposes that God does not exist, which naturally/logically means divine miracles cannot exist therefore, God did not rise Jesus from the dead. But the problem with that is he refuses to investigate claims of historical miracles let alone modern day miracles to see if they did/do exist. As long as Carrier deliberately rejects out of hand the statistics of miracles then his argument can't be invalidated.
Still, I don't fault Carrier for trying, I only fault him for not being honest about his motives for wanting to use Baye's theorem as the new gold standard for determining if there was a historical Jesus.
Respectfully,
John T