MrMacSon wrote: a. What is the probability that James was alive when Josephus was in Jerusalem? - Josephus would have been 15 yrs of age in 62 AD/CE
MrMacSon wrote: b. What is the probability Josephus would have known about James, if James was alive in Jerusalem, say, 60-62 AD/CE?
No, Josephus was 25 years old in 62 AD. Probabilty: 100%What is the likelihood of that? -ie. -
a. What is the probability that James was alive when Josephus was in Jerusalem? - Josephus would have been 15 yrs of age in 62 AD/CE
b. What is the probability Josephus would have known about James, if James was alive in Jerusalem, say, 60-62 AD/CE?
I gave most of 70% for the first option (the rest being for interpolation) and only 30% for the second option.* What is the likelihood of that? - ie. the probability of that?For Tacitus ... he may have learned about 'Christus under Pilate' from Christians or ex-Christians (after the gospels were known)*, (rather than learning (& remembering) it before 71 AD when he was 14 years old or younger (but more than 7 years old)).
Well, I do not know what exactly about what you have in mind, but just proceed as you please.timhendrix wrote:Hi Bernard,
Okay just to spell it out:
P("The phrase 'Descendant of Abraham (Gal 3:16)' is not IID") = 72%?
(I am not trying to throw away the part about: "therefore implying the historicity of Jesus", however, I think it is difficult to include in the above probability and more naturally accounted for elsewhere. If this is not what you have in mind, we must begin to agree on the exact formulation).
If it is okay for you perhaps we can pretend the probabilities are all the same for all 15 points and focus on the details later?
Finally, the probability we are trying to compute at the end of the day is that Jesus existed correct?
Yes, I was wrong: I had thought/assumed Josephus was born in 47 AD, without looking it upBernard Muller wrote:to MrMacSon,No, Josephus was 25 years old in 62 AD. Probability: 100%What is the likelihood of that? -ie. -
a. What is the probability that James was alive when Josephus was in Jerusalem? - Josephus would have been 15 yrs of age in 62 AD/CE
b. What is the probability Josephus would have known about James, if James was alive in Jerusalem, say, 60-62 AD/CE?
There are a few things to look at and work out here, Bernard, as with a lot of the information you are trying to look at or use.Bernard Muller wrote: Josephus might have known about James only during his trial, if not before, when James was the leader of a sectarian group. That was a big affair in Jerusalem, with the involvement of the Sanhedrin, an appeal to the new governor on his way to Palestine, and a removal of a new high priest.
Something to talk about, including about James being the blood brother of Jesus called Christ. I gave 80% of probability of that point, the rest (20%) being mostly for the possibility of interpolation.
Ah. I think I understand what you mean: Your saying that if Gal. 3:16 is not IID, that means it is not an interpretation (one of the I's), that means Jesus was literally a 'descendant of Abraham' (i.e.: thought to be), that means Jesus was actually thought to have existed on earth (because Abraham did), that means Jesus was historical because certainly, that is the most reasonable conclusion if such an early source honestly provides that information and we can rule out IID?Bernard Muller wrote: because in this case, the 72% (which then would mean only that the phrase was original and therefore not including "interpretation") should be increased. Because I included all IID in the 28%. If "interpretation" is taking out, the 72% becomes higher. I think the simplest thing is to include all the IDD in a bundle.
I give a probability of 20% for all that, this 20% mostly for the possibility of being an interpolation.What is the probability that the James killed in the 60s in Jerusalem, in the accounts of Clement, Hegesippus, and Josephus, are all the same James?
What is the probability that Josephus, as a Jewish military leader, would have come in to contact with a James the leader of a sectarian group?
What is the probability that, if Josephus knew such a sectarian-leader James, he was the one whose death was described by a/ Josephus himself, or either b/ Clement, or c/ Hegesippus, or d/ 2 or 3 of those authors?
Now we are talking about the probability of the existence of James, the blood brother of Jesus. That's a different matter.Separately, 1 what is the Probability that there was a James who was the blood brother of Jesus?
2 Which James in the Synoptics might he have been?
3 What is the Probability each of the James in the Synoptics was Jesus blood brother?
4 Was the same James in Gal 1:19 the same James as in Gal 2? What is the Probability they are the same?
5 Which James was in 1 Corinthians 15:4-8? (NRSV)
4 ..he was buried, and that he was raised on the third day in accordance with the scriptures, 5 and that he appeared to Cephas, then to the twelve. 6 Then he appeared to more than five hundred brothers [and sisters] at one time, most of whom are still alive, though some have died/fallen asleep. 7 Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles. 8 Last of all, as to one untimely born, he appeared also to me.
6 What is the probability that that James was the same as the other James?
7 Separately, again, What is the probability that a James became the leader of the early church? ahead of Peter?
8 What is the probability that James was Jesus biological brother?
That looks OK to me.P("The phrase 'Descendant of Abraham (Gal 3:16)' is not IID") = 72% (IID here means exactly what you say it mean; also there are 14 other similar probabilities for the other examples you give)
P("Jesus was historical" | "The phrase 'Descendant of Abraham (Gal 3:16)' is not IID") = 100%
The last probability is simply saying that if Gal. 3:16 is not IID, then we can be certain Jesus existed.
(some might say it should not be exactly 100% because of whatever other circumstances that could be dreamed up, but I think we should just go with 100% to simplify things).
